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  • Last Race and Jockeys

    You hear this all the time at the track
    "Top jockey sticking around for the last race of the day"
    Even the sharpest guys say it.

    Jockeys,their agents and trainers have no idea which race is going to be carded as the last race of the day. Entries are taken and then closed, then the racing secretary decides which races will go where. The condition book doesnt specify which race will be where on the card. It is a matter of field size and/or surface. Bigger fields get put on the end of the card for Pick 6/Pick 4 reasons. The feature race is usually the 2nd to last race. Turf races are not carded back to back. And so on.
    However, if the field is large and it's a maiden claiming race, then it is more than likely to be carded as the final race, but I dont think you'll ever hear a jocks agent tell a trainer that his jock doesnt want to ride your horse because there may be a chance it's carded as the last race and Garrett,Rafael,or Laffit don't want to stick around to ride it. They are top riders that will not ride bottom level maiden claimers or bottom level anything but Im pretty sure position on the days card is not a factor.

  • #2
    Originally posted by TEJASKIDD View Post
    You hear this all the time at the track
    "Top jockey sticking around for the last race of the day"

    Jockeys,their agents and trainers have no idea which race is going to be carded as the last race of the day. Entries are taken and then closed, then the racing secretary decides which races will go where. The condition book doesnt specify which race will be where on the card.
    Good point Dennis;

    Since it’s a Monday lets check it out a little. Picked some guys at random who ride a bunch and will compare them overall / with the last race of the day. (Last two years / all tracks)

    • All burger / all tracks shapes and sizes: "Benchmark"
    Code:
    [B]JOCKEY	                Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	$AVGM	$16.25+	High	I.V.[/B]
    Acosta J. D.	        2832	547	19%	$0.73	$7.53	41	$81	1.58
    Baze Russell A.	        2529	807	32%	$0.84	$5.25	8	$24	2.61
    Bejarano Rafael	        2705	507	19%	$0.80	$8.49	47	$44	1.53
    Castro Eddie	        2709	461	17%	$0.75	$8.87	51	$74	1.39
    Coa Eibar	        3026	525	17%	$0.84	$9.66	63	$123	1.42
    Cruz Manoel R.	        2657	494	19%	$0.75	$8.07	40	$70	1.52
    Dominguez Ramon A.      2716	646	24%	$0.82	$6.89	29	$81	1.95
    Emigh Christopher A.    2735	419	15%	$0.73	$9.53	52	$59	1.25
    Garcia Alan	        2712	454	17%	$0.95	$11.33	84	$89	1.37
    Gomez Garrett K.        2297	476	21%	$0.82	$7.87	30	$45	1.70
    Leparoux Julien R.      2504	450	18%	$0.82	$9.10	53	$65	1.47
    Maragh Rajiv	        2697	386	14%	$0.82	$11.50	71	$86	1.17
    Mena Miguel	        2663	377	14%	$0.79	$11.21	54	$133	1.16
    Parker Deshawn L.	3112	523	17%	$0.76	$9.00	58	$69	1.38
    Paucar Edgar	        2598	480	18%	$0.67	$7.25	24	$60	1.51
    Prescott Rodney A.	3003	410	14%	$0.73	$10.74	57	$117	1.12
    Stokes, III Rex A.	2553	473	19%	$0.79	$8.48	40	$51	1.52
    Trujillo Elvis	        2449	490	20%	$0.89	$8.93	51	$136	1.64
    Velasquez Cornelio H.	2934	418	14%	$0.76	$10.63	60	$97	1.17
    [U]Whitney Dana G.	        2453	384	16%	$0.65	$8.34	31	$99	1.28[/U]
    [B]Average:	        2694	486	18%	$0.78	$8.93	47	$80	1.49[/B]
    • Just the last race of the day. (At the end is a simple plus / minus from their all burger. 1 pt each for ROI and IV deviation; -2 = “worse” then their normal rate and +2 = better to whatever degree)
    Code:
    [B]JOCKEY	                Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	$AVGM	$16.25+	High	I.V.	+ - [/B]
    Acosta J. D.	        270	49	18%	$0.59	$6.46	1	$19	1.49	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Baze Russell A.	        235	73	31%	$0.85	$5.48	1	$19	2.54	0 
    Bejarano Rafael	        264	49	19%	$0.91	$9.84	7	$37	1.52	0 
    Castro Eddie	        273	47	17%	$0.90	$10.42	9	$47	1.41	2 
    Coa Eibar	        321	44	14%	$0.81	$11.81	13	$30	1.12	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Cruz Manoel R.	        236	47	20%	$0.77	$7.77	2	$38	1.63	2 
    Dominguez Ramon A.	318	67	21%	$0.74	$7.06	3	$21	1.73	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Emigh Christopher A.	313	51	16%	$0.91	$11.14	8	$59	1.33	2 
    Garcia Alan	        330	51	15%	$1.17	$15.10	13	$89	1.27	0 
    Gomez Garrett K.	203	35	17%	$0.62	$7.19	1	$17	1.41	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Leparoux Julien R.	273	45	16%	$0.77	$9.34	6	$28	1.35	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Maragh Rajiv	        293	34	12%	$0.68	$11.71	7	$39	0.95	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Mena Miguel	        283	34	12%	$0.98	$16.38	9	$133	0.98	0 
    Parker Deshawn L.	320	40	13%	$0.60	$9.60	5	$51	1.02	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Paucar Edgar	        332	55	17%	$0.74	$8.88	5	$42	1.36	0 
    Prescott Rodney A.	354	58	16%	$0.87	$10.60	7	$77	1.34	2 
    Stokes, III Rex A.	273	57	21%	$1.02	$9.73	8	$33	1.71	2 
    Trujillo Elvis	        232	41	18%	$0.69	$7.83	4	$24	1.45	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Velasquez Cornelio H.	308	41	13%	$0.66	$9.92	5	$58	1.09	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    [U]Whitney Dana G.	        237	26	11%	$0.58	$10.57	2	$99	0.90	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR][/U]
    [B]Average:	        283	47	17%	$0.79	$9.84	6	$48	1.38	[COLOR="Red"](1)[/COLOR][/B]
    • Just the last race and probably the category most are interested in; when they “stick around” for that maiden claimer. (Same stats and plus-minus)
    Code:
    JOCKEY	                Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	$AVGM	$16.25+	High	I.V.	+ - 
    Acosta J. D.	        70	13	19%	$0.62	$6.72	0	$14	1.52	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Baze Russell A.	        78	21	27%	$0.74	$5.48	0	$11	2.20	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Bejarano Rafael	        114	23	20%	$0.85	$8.41	2	$20	1.65	2 
    Castro Eddie	        72	12	17%	$0.72	$8.58	2	$19	1.36	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Coa Eibar	        69	6	9%	$0.57	$13.02	1	$30	0.71	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Cruz Manoel R.	        144	25	17%	$0.59	$6.82	0	$15	1.42	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Dominguez Ramon A.	55	14	25%	$0.92	$7.21	0	$16	2.08	2 
    Emigh Christopher A.	58	10	17%	$0.94	$10.96	2	$28	1.41	2 
    Garcia Alan	        78	14	18%	$1.21	$13.47	5	$31	1.47	2 
    Gomez Garrett K.	61	13	21%	$0.65	$6.13	0	$9	1.75	0 
    Leparoux Julien R.	49	10	20%	$0.71	$6.92	0	$14	1.67	0 
    Maragh Rajiv	        85	7	8%	$0.48	$11.77	2	$19	0.67	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Mena Miguel	        54	5	9%	$0.74	$16.00	2	$31	0.76	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Parker Deshawn L.	3	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Paucar Edgar	        117	23	20%	$0.95	$9.70	2	$42	1.61	2 
    Prescott Rodney A.	77	10	13%	$1.02	$15.70	1	$77	1.06	0 
    Stokes, III Rex A.	17	2	12%	$0.28	$4.70	0	$5	0.96	[COLOR="Red"](2)[/COLOR]
    Trujillo Elvis	        118	27	23%	$0.85	$7.47	2	$24	1.87	0 
    Velasquez Cornelio H.	78	15	19%	$1.26	$13.10	3	$58	1.57	2 
    [U]Whitney Dana G.	        4	2	50%	$1.90	$7.60	0	$10	4.09	2 [/U]
    [B]Average:	        70	12	18%	$0.80	$8.99	1	$24	1.49	(0)[/B]
    Conclusions: Heck if I know; I have a hunch Ken won’t be adding a “last race” filter into the Robot anytime soon; but if anyone is benefiting from this angle…bless you and as Tommy C likes to say; ‘Keep firing!
    Dan G
    ========================
    "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over." ~ Warren Buffett

    Comment


    • #3
      Dan,

      You are amazing! How do you do this? Heck, on second thought, I don't care just keep doing it!

      New angle...

      ALAN GARCIA in the last race baby!

      (Only if he is wearing pretty colors! )

      Regards,
      Bob G
      Bob G

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Bob View Post

        New angle...

        ALAN GARCIA in the last race baby!


        (Only if he is wearing pretty colors! )
        There you go Bob / it’s Garcia for the toll money in the 9th!

        The one I did a double take on was Russell Baze with only 8 winners over 7-1 in 2 years!!!
        Dan G
        ========================
        "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over." ~ Warren Buffett

        Comment


        • #5
          That Baze stat is amazing.
          With it being Monday and all, what is Baze's winning % on runners over 7-1?
          I wish I was his agent. Get to handicap the race and pick which one to ride before entries. I'm sure Ray Harris has done a lot of spinning trainers in his career. About 5 trainers per race, 8 races per day, 200 plus days a year for over 20 years. 160,000+ spins.
          He has run every decent rider out of town, or they've run themselves out of town by getting DUI's, jumping off bridges(I dont mean betting a lot to show), or just moving south.

          Comment


          • #6
            Jumping or "Planted with cement shoes"

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by TEJASKIDD View Post
              With it being Monday and all, what is Baze's winning % on runners over 7-1?
              I’ll run the 6 odds ranges I already have set up and use. For exactly “7-1” that’s a custom job and I’ll have to start charging.

              Odds ranges are set up as % of all horses that run; or (% 10-20-20-20-20-10 %) trying to separate the two extremes.

              The ranges come out to…

              1. <2-1
              2. <4.3
              3. <8.2
              4. <16.4
              5. <43.2
              6. >=43.2

              Benchmark; (All riders etc by the odds ranges above)
              Code:
              [B]TOTE	Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	$AVGM	$16.25+	High	I.V.[/B]
              1	101498	37930	37%	$0.83	$4.44	0	$9	3.06
              2	172918	34577	20%	$0.81	$8.05	0	$12	1.64
              [U]3	179783	20701	12%	$0.80	$13.83	3664	$19	0.94[/U]
              4	184654	11673	6%	$0.78	$24.53	11634	$35	0.52
              5	180498	4996	3%	$0.70	$50.65	4989	$88	0.23
              6	86004	696	1%	$0.49	$120.11	695	$367	0.07
              I might as well run it on the same list of riders; (Same deal; 2 year all burger)

              BTW: 55% of Russell “The Muscle’s” rides are less then 2-1…that is REMARKABLE!!!
              Code:
              [B]JOCKEY	                       TOTE	Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	$AVGM	$16.25+	High	I.V.[/B]
              Acosta J. D.	               1	809	337	42%	$0.87	$4.18	0	$6	3.41
              Acosta J. D.	               2	720	129	18%	$0.69	$7.75	0	$10	1.47
              Acosta J. D.	               3	546	46	8%	$0.58	$13.74	6	$18	0.69
              Acosta J. D.	               4	423	30	7%	$0.93	$26.27	30	$35	0.58
              Acosta J. D.	               5	288	5	2%	$0.50	$58.00	5	$81	0.14
              [U]Acosta J. D.	               6	46	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              [B][COLOR="DarkRed"]Baze Russell A.	               1	1379	600	44%	$0.89	$4.07	0	$6	3.56
              Baze Russell A.	               2	817	175	21%	$0.81	$7.60	0	$11	1.75
              Baze Russell A.	               3	265	27	10%	$0.67	$13.13	3	$18	0.83
              Baze Russell A.	               4	59	5	8%	$0.92	$21.72	5	$24	0.69
              Baze Russell A.	               5	8	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00
              [U]Baze Russell A.	               6	1	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U][/COLOR][U][/U][/B][U][/U]
              Bejarano Rafael	               1	586	222	38%	$0.84	$4.46	0	$6	3.10
              Bejarano Rafael	               2	854	176	21%	$0.83	$8.05	0	$11	1.69
              Bejarano Rafael	               3	648	75	12%	$0.81	$13.98	13	$18	0.95
              Bejarano Rafael	               4	417	30	7%	$0.83	$23.13	30	$32	0.59
              Bejarano Rafael	               5	180	4	2%	$0.43	$38.65	4	$44	0.18
              [U]Bejarano Rafael	               6	20	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Castro Eddie	               1	563	223	40%	$0.86	$4.34	0	$6	3.24
              Castro Eddie	               2	762	137	18%	$0.71	$7.92	0	$11	1.47
              Castro Eddie	               3	582	57	10%	$0.66	$13.52	8	$18	0.80
              Castro Eddie	               4	497	36	7%	$0.88	$24.22	35	$33	0.59
              Castro Eddie	               5	253	8	3%	$0.77	$48.94	8	$74	0.26
              [U]Castro Eddie	               6	52	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Coa Eibar	               1	520	188	36%	$0.80	$4.44	0	$6	2.96
              Coa Eibar	               2	943	213	23%	$0.90	$8.00	0	$11	1.85
              Coa Eibar	               3	748	75	10%	$0.69	$13.74	14	$18	0.82
              Coa Eibar	               4	524	37	7%	$0.84	$23.74	37	$32	0.58
              Coa Eibar	               5	266	11	4%	$0.94	$45.60	11	$70	0.34
              [U]Coa Eibar	               6	25	1	4%	$2.46	$123.00	1	$123	0.33[/U]
              Cruz Manoel R.	               1	681	249	37%	$0.80	$4.37	0	$6	2.99
              Cruz Manoel R.	               2	817	165	20%	$0.79	$7.83	0	$11	1.65
              Cruz Manoel R.	               3	560	50	9%	$0.62	$13.84	10	$18	0.73
              Cruz Manoel R.	               4	334	22	7%	$0.78	$23.80	22	$33	0.54
              Cruz Manoel R.	               5	213	8	4%	$0.91	$48.68	8	$70	0.31
              [U]Cruz Manoel R.	               6	52	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Dominguez Ramon A.	       1	924	386	42%	$0.87	$4.17	0	$6	3.42
              Dominguez Ramon A.	       2	880	174	20%	$0.76	$7.73	0	$11	1.62
              Dominguez Ramon A.	       3	493	64	13%	$0.88	$13.62	7	$18	1.06
              Dominguez Ramon A.	       4	288	18	6%	$0.72	$23.04	18	$31	0.51
              Dominguez Ramon A.	       5	122	4	3%	$0.86	$52.48	4	$81	0.27
              [U]Dominguez Ramon A.	       6	9	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Emigh Christopher A.	       1	467	152	33%	$0.76	$4.64	0	$6	2.67
              Emigh Christopher A.	       2	844	159	19%	$0.76	$8.07	0	$11	1.54
              Emigh Christopher A.	       3	690	68	10%	$0.66	$13.46	12	$18	0.81
              Emigh Christopher A.	       4	485	36	7%	$0.91	$24.64	36	$33	0.61
              Emigh Christopher A.	       5	221	4	2%	$0.46	$50.35	4	$59	0.15
              [U]Emigh Christopher A.	       6	28	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Garcia Alan	               1	399	151	38%	$0.88	$4.66	0	$6	3.10
              Garcia Alan	               2	668	150	22%	$0.90	$8.05	0	$11	1.84
              Garcia Alan	               3	689	83	12%	$0.82	$13.70	14	$18	0.99
              Garcia Alan	               4	593	52	9%	$1.05	$23.92	52	$34	0.72
              Garcia Alan	               5	308	17	6%	$1.24	$44.76	17	$79	0.45
              [U]Garcia Alan	               6	55	1	2%	$0.81	$89.20	1	$89	0.15[/U]
              Gomez Garrett K.	       1	601	218	36%	$0.81	$4.47	0	$6	2.97
              Gomez Garrett K.	       2	808	174	22%	$0.85	$7.94	0	$11	1.76
              Gomez Garrett K.	       3	527	64	12%	$0.84	$13.78	10	$18	0.99
              Gomez Garrett K.	       4	279	18	6%	$0.76	$23.52	18	$32	0.53
              Gomez Garrett K.	       5	81	2	2%	$0.52	$42.20	2	$45	0.20
              [U]Gomez Garrett K.	       6	1	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Leparoux Julien R.	       1	467	179	38%	$0.85	$4.46	0	$6	3.14
              Leparoux Julien R.	       2	707	157	22%	$0.87	$7.82	0	$11	1.82
              Leparoux Julien R.	       3	639	78	12%	$0.84	$13.75	17	$18	1.00
              Leparoux Julien R.	       4	421	30	7%	$0.87	$24.51	30	$35	0.58
              Leparoux Julien R.	       5	245	6	2%	$0.54	$43.93	6	$65	0.20
              [U]Leparoux Julien R.	       6	25	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Maragh Rajiv	               1	341	116	34%	$0.77	$4.51	0	$6	2.79
              Maragh Rajiv	               2	678	125	18%	$0.73	$7.94	0	$11	1.51
              Maragh Rajiv	               3	649	90	14%	$0.96	$13.81	16	$18	1.14
              Maragh Rajiv	               4	580	42	7%	$0.88	$24.21	42	$34	0.59
              Maragh Rajiv	               5	383	13	3%	$0.87	$51.04	13	$86	0.28
              [U]Maragh Rajiv	               6	66	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Mena Miguel	               1	359	133	37%	$0.84	$4.56	0	$6	3.03
              Mena Miguel	               2	629	137	22%	$0.87	$8.01	0	$11	1.78
              Mena Miguel	               3	605	58	10%	$0.66	$13.70	5	$18	0.79
              Mena Miguel	               4	548	35	6%	$0.79	$24.78	35	$34	0.52
              Mena Miguel	               5	408	12	3%	$0.74	$50.18	12	$70	0.24
              [U]Mena Miguel	               6	114	2	2%	$1.13	$129.10	2	$133	0.14[/U]
              Parker Deshawn L.	       1	579	230	40%	$0.86	$4.35	0	$6	3.25
              Parker Deshawn L.	       2	819	170	21%	$0.82	$7.87	0	$11	1.70
              Parker Deshawn L.	       3	711	75	11%	$0.72	$13.70	10	$18	0.86
              Parker Deshawn L.	       4	618	39	6%	$0.75	$23.62	39	$34	0.52
              Parker Deshawn L.	       5	344	9	3%	$0.61	$46.67	9	$69	0.21
              [U]Parker Deshawn L.	       6	41	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Paucar Edgar	               1	741	270	36%	$0.77	$4.20	0	$6	2.98
              Paucar Edgar	               2	777	142	18%	$0.73	$7.94	0	$11	1.50
              Paucar Edgar	               3	515	50	10%	$0.65	$13.35	7	$18	0.80
              Paucar Edgar	               4	325	12	4%	$0.43	$23.27	11	$32	0.30
              Paucar Edgar	               5	203	6	3%	$0.67	$45.03	6	$60	0.24
              [U]Paucar Edgar	               6	37	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Prescott Rodney A.	       1	428	167	39%	$0.85	$4.38	0	$6	3.20
              Prescott Rodney A.	       2	749	135	18%	$0.73	$8.11	0	$11	1.48
              Prescott Rodney A.	       3	719	63	9%	$0.61	$13.85	12	$18	0.72
              Prescott Rodney A.	       4	588	28	5%	$0.54	$22.64	28	$29	0.39
              Prescott Rodney A.	       5	430	15	3%	$0.99	$56.56	15	$88	0.29
              [U]Prescott Rodney A.	       6	89	2	2%	$1.26	$112.00	2	$117	0.18[/U]
              Stokes, III Rex A.	       1	534	215	40%	$0.89	$4.43	0	$6	3.30
              Stokes, III Rex A.	       2	684	152	22%	$0.90	$8.08	0	$11	1.82
              Stokes, III Rex A.	       3	574	77	13%	$0.90	$13.37	12	$18	1.10
              Stokes, III Rex A.	       4	464	24	5%	$0.64	$24.87	23	$34	0.42
              Stokes, III Rex A.	       5	260	5	2%	$0.39	$40.84	5	$51	0.16
              [U]Stokes, III Rex A.	       6	37	0	0%	$0.00	$0.00	0	$0	0.00[/U]
              Trujillo Elvis	               1	538	235	44%	$0.93	$4.28	0	$6	3.58
              Trujillo Elvis	               2	758	154	20%	$0.81	$7.97	0	$11	1.66
              Trujillo Elvis	               3	488	60	12%	$0.84	$13.62	10	$18	1.01
              Trujillo Elvis	               4	392	32	8%	$0.99	$24.32	32	$34	0.67
              Trujillo Elvis	               5	210	7	3%	$0.76	$45.40	7	$82	0.27
              [U]Trujillo Elvis	               6	63	2	3%	$1.80	$113.70	2	$136	0.26[/U]
              Velasquez Cornelio H.	       1	444	158	36%	$0.78	$4.37	0	$6	2.91
              Velasquez Cornelio H.	       2	764	140	18%	$0.74	$8.09	0	$11	1.50
              Velasquez Cornelio H.	       3	665	74	11%	$0.77	$13.75	14	$18	0.91
              Velasquez Cornelio H.	       4	627	31	5%	$0.59	$23.90	31	$34	0.40
              Velasquez Cornelio H.	       5	382	14	4%	$1.00	$54.68	14	$88	0.30
              [U]Velasquez Cornelio H.	       6	52	1	2%	$0.93	$97.00	1	$97	0.16[/U]
              Whitney Dana G.	               1	559	197	35%	$0.76	$4.31	0	$6	2.89
              Whitney Dana G.  	       2	658	115	17%	$0.68	$7.75	0	$11	1.43
              Whitney Dana G.	               3	519	48	9%	$0.62	$13.42	7	$18	0.76
              Whitney Dana G.	               4	409	18	4%	$0.54	$24.39	18	$34	0.36
              Whitney Dana G.  	       5	256	4	2%	$0.35	$45.25	4	$67	0.13
              Whitney Dana G.	               6	52	2	4%	$1.90	$98.80	2	$99	0.31
              Dan G
              ========================
              "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over." ~ Warren Buffett

              Comment


              • #8
                So it's not the fact that he doesnt win on many longshots. He just doesnt ride any longshots.
                Amazing that over 87% of the time his odds are less than 4.3-1
                Of course, he is riding in mostly 6 horse fields and he does get 1st call on most of them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TEJASKIDD View Post
                  So it's not the fact that he doesnt win on many longshots. He just doesnt ride any longshots.
                  Amazing that over 87% of the time his odds are less than 4.3-1
                  Of course, he is riding in mostly 6 horse fields and he does get 1st call on most of them.
                  True; and I wouldn’t be surprised if several of his few bombers were out of town.
                  Dan G
                  ========================
                  "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over." ~ Warren Buffett

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Baze has raced 158 times with odds >= 32-1

                    107 @ SA
                    43 @ HOL
                    2 # LS
                    1 @ GP
                    2 @ DMR

                    1 @ GG
                    2 @ BM

                    ___________________________________

                    486 TOTAL races @ SA
                    327 TOTAL races @ HOL
                    9 TOTAL races @ LS
                    10 TOTAL races @ GP
                    53 TOTAL races @ DMR

                    10,873 TOTAL race @ BM
                    10,219 TOTAL race @ GG

                    Once he wanders away from No Cal, he either gets no respect or few good mounts (or both).

                    Ron Tiller
                    HDW

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If any of you are wondering why R Baze didnt leave the state much during his career.
                      Here is the answer. I know his agent personally so I can tell you why.
                      They always believed that riding a full card locally was better than leaving the state to ride a single stakes race elsewhere.
                      4 or 5 Winners at BM/GG would be better for business than 1 win elsewhere.
                      Cant argue with that.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ron Tiller View Post
                        Baze has raced 158 times with odds >= 32-1

                        107 @ SA
                        43 @ HOL
                        2 # LS
                        1 @ GP
                        2 @ DMR

                        1 @ GG
                        2 @ BM

                        ___________________________________

                        486 TOTAL races @ SA
                        327 TOTAL races @ HOL
                        9 TOTAL races @ LS
                        10 TOTAL races @ GP
                        53 TOTAL races @ DMR

                        10,873 TOTAL race @ BM
                        10,219 TOTAL race @ GG

                        Once he wanders away from No Cal, he either gets no respect or few good mounts (or both).

                        Ron Tiller
                        HDW
                        3 mounts of 21,000 at >=32/1 !!
                        Some riders can surpass that total by midcard on a given day
                        Nice stat Ron
                        I wonder if any rider elsewhere could even come close to those numbers
                        Speaks to absolute total domination and probably a rock solid job by the agent

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I don't have any of my old research but I did a lot of work on Jockeys years ago, in an effort to provide a more meaningful rating than gross win percentage. For instance, if #1 PSR horses win 31% of the time and a jockey typically gets #1 PSR horses, they SHOULD have a higher win percentage - as Jerry Bailey typically did. But what about jockeys that typically get really low ranked horses with low win expectations and who outperform those probabilities, sometimes considerably.

                          To make a long story short, pretty much every category I looked at, where the sample size was over 100, one jockey always sorted to the top, like oil on water. It got to be a running joke. Who was it? Russell Baze. And quite a few low win percentage jockeys rode better than their probabilities, given the poor horses they were on. These were not reflected in gross win percentages.

                          Ron Tiller
                          HDW

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Dennis---
                            You know what would be kinda cool...?? How about we set up a thread called Ask the Owner. It's mis-information like your thread starter that I am sure many of us would love to have someone to ask of. I know Mayo (previously owned horses) and others probably could help out in answering some of the questions! Your thoughts?
                            Last edited by Donnie; 3 March 2009, 11:07.28 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Donnie,
                              Sorry I didnt respond sooner.
                              Maybe the thread should be ask the Ex owner. I am out of the game for good.
                              Too tough to make it work with bottom level claimers.
                              I think the best way to do it is buying shares into a group of higher valued runners.
                              It cost the same amount to train and feed and vet a 5000 claimer as it does a Breeders Cup runner.
                              If anyone has a question, Id be sure to answer to the best of my knowledge

                              Comment

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